Splitting 'Timed' or 'Walk Away'

Splits with some out loud thoughts folks tune me out but I need to get this straight for a discussion I am having and the 'Why' behind my plan.
So recall I have four hives, two very strong and two moderate to week.

The Goals for this set of splits I have coming:

1. To end up with at least 6 hives, two of which that I can share.
2. Still have honey production.... Not for hand outs but that will happen....if all goes as I THINK/plan it will.
3. Not to get demoralized if it doesn't work. This is a distinct possibility as when I combined down to 4 from 5 I was contemplating my skill/art as a bee keeper.

The Risks:

1. I lose the two weak hives and two/or more splits that try to make.
2. Then I lose the strong hives with no replacement hives. Absolute worse case scenario. This is assuming I come out of this winter with the four hives I describe.

Discussion:

There are two types splits I will talk about. One type is called 'A Walk Away' split. Another type of split is more natural selection called 'Timed' split. So the second type of split makes sense but is somewhat harder. The idea is that in spring when the bees are really into a honey flow it gets crowded in the hive as the bees are bringing in nectar and filling cells in the brood and honey supers. This is prime time where the bees think about swarming. Swarming is basically where the bees plan and set up to send the existing queen (who goes through steps to slim down) and roughly half the existing bees go swarm and fly to a branch or perch near by up to 200 yards away. Before they swarm the bees have created several swarm cells at the bottom of the frames that will contain queens in 'queen cells' usually multiple cells over several frames in the hive. So that seems easy as the queen cells are about the size of peanut and it looks like a peanut. so they are very easy to see. The real challenge is that you want to see the queen cell with an egg in it or larva developing but not sealed all the way. If the cell is sealed then the bees will swarm and leave. This isn't too bad as it will leave a hive out in the wild but not the best for a beekeeper. So to this is where the genetics should be very good (strongest possibility) rather than having the bees make a queen from 1-2 day old eggs.
So with the frames with queen cells separate them from the hive and place them in a nucleus (5frame) hive and let the bees decide which cell survives aka natural selection. Then perhaps this prevents the swarming. THATS THE THEORY. Bee keeping is based on science but it is an art form, cuz what do I know about science...LoL (yes, I crack me up!)

So as I mentioned it is harder doing a timed split but more likely to succeed for the hobbyist.

To simulate a swarm perhaps move all the non-swarm cells and queen to a new hive setup. Yes I have a couple of spare boxes. to do that and see if that prevent the weaker hives from swarming. Then the theory is that if I split my weaker hives they could then go and mate with the two stronger hives that I will spread the genetics to the weaker side and continue to make my bees more muts (Russian and Italian mix).

Then I rely on my stronger hives to produce honey that I could store for winter and use for feeding all the hives in winter rather than sugar. This process will place me more active in the hives in the spring. Let's see if I have the time as March/April has me traveling in the spring right when I should be in the hive.

Now for the word for 2014..... Raspberry Pi..... Hmmmmmmmmmmm